A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also reduce the demand for crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is three times the typical retail share, and this allocation may divert funds away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position. The crypto market's response to the SpaceX IPO will be a testable signal, and whether it holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline will be closely watched.