Bitcoin's Upward Trend Faces Pentagon-Backed Inflation Warning

As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty has resurfaced as a significant obstacle. The Pentagon recently briefed U.S. lawmakers, cautioning that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved. This warning, as reported by the Washington Post, has significant implications for inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates. Given bitcoin's sensitivity to interest rates and global liquidity, persistently high energy costs could negatively impact the cryptocurrency. Rising costs for essential goods may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets like bitcoin. Market trends already reflect these risks, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 and government bond yields increasing across major economies. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts urge caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, while speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily rising, with the potential for a bullish crossover in the moving averages, suggesting continued outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold.