A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's anticipated $75 billion capital raise poised to make a significant impact on the liquidity of the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass the $29 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history.
Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the listing occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin, have been trading in tandem with tech and AI equities, and the impending IPOs may disrupt this correlation. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, worth approximately $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto assets. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin holdings of 8,285 BTC, valued at around $600 million, make its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a significant bitcoin position.
The market's response to the SpaceX IPO will be a key indicator of whether crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.