Bitcoin Rally Faces Obstacles Amid Pentagon's Inflation Warning

Bitcoin's recent surge towards $80,000 has been hindered by growing macroeconomic uncertainty. A classified Pentagon briefing to US lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping oil and gasoline prices high through the midterm elections. This persistent inflation could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin. Rising energy costs may also reduce investor appetite for speculative assets. Markets are already reflecting these risks, with WTI crude prices climbing to around $95 and government bond yields increasing across major economies. While US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs are seeing sustained demand, some analysts warn that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market, increasing the risk of a correction if traders take profits. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is growing. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.