A historic stock market debut is approaching, and the crypto market is bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.

If successful, this IPO will be the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with a 65% probability of success, according to Polymarket traders. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with potential valuations reaching $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.

The combined capital raise of over $240 billion will exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. This massive influx of capital could lead to a bearish market, with Alex Good, founder of Post Fiat, warning that the IPO could trigger a rotation out of equities and into other assets.

Crypto, in particular, may be affected, as it shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has tightened over the past two cycles, and speculative capital leaving equities for IPO allocations could impact crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern.

The lesson learned from that experience is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's material bitcoin position, disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.

A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could suggest that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.