Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high, with analyst James Check deeming such a move statistically extraordinary, albeit not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which evaluates the cryptocurrency's price based on historical percentiles, noting that a price of $40,000 would rank as a 0.4th percentile event, significantly below any meaningful deviation. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading at $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, with the current price sitting at the 31.5th percentile, a historically weak but normal correction range.
Check emphasizes that while no market event has zero probability, a $40,000 Bitcoin price would be a nearly unprecedented outcome.