According to Michael Terpin, a renowned early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, the current price of bitcoin, which stands at $77,270.49, has not yet reached its lowest point. Moreover, Terpin believes that achieving a new all-time high this year is highly unlikely.
To signal the start of a bull market, the price of bitcoin must surpass $100,000, a level that Terpin thinks is necessary for a significant turnaround. However, he predicts that the cryptocurrency will first plummet to $57,000 by October, marking the bottom of its current cycle. Terpin's bearish outlook diverges from the consensus among many analysts, who think the low point of the bear market was reached in February at around $60,000 and that a new bull run has begun.
The reasoning behind their optimism includes the resurgence of investments in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and the spike in oil prices. Terpin, often referred to as the 'crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, founded several key ventures, including Transform Group, a pioneering PR firm focused on blockchain companies, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group. In a recent interview, Terpin pointed out that during Asian trading hours, the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected, a common occurrence in the bitcoin cycle where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, conditions that are not yet met. Terpin argues that the fundamentals suggest a later-cycle bottom, which historically averages around $57,000, a price he predicts will be reached by October. This timeline aligns with last year's events when bitcoin first fell below $100,000, followed by a significant crash on October 10, where $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out.
Fernandes also notes that broader macro conditions, including tight liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment, could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin. The 'crypto Godfather' also expressed his belief that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view that crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees with, calling it overly bearish and suggesting there is still room for significant growth given the level of institutional adoption and interest. Fernandes concurs that market sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle lows, indicating that another downturn may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.
While Terpin's $100,000 level serves as a psychological signal rather than a strict technical threshold, achieving this price could trigger the behavior characteristic of a true bull market, marked by structural higher highs and strong capital inflows.