The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with bitcoin showing minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, given that Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has described its economy as being in a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social.
Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies have experienced losses, with ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, is dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week.
As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, leaving it much thinner on the sell-side than it was a few months ago. He added that bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of wider volatility. Since the current trading range is relatively quiet, there is no immediate rush for the exits.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a crucial level, where the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have recovered 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude oil prices have whipsawed between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching whether bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. However, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.