Bitcoin's Ascent to $80,000 Faces Hurdles as Economic Indicators Flash Warning Signs

After reaching above $79,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin has retreated to around $76,500, stalling its rally from the late-March lows of under $65,000. However, recent economic data suggests that a rapid return to its upward trajectory may be unlikely. The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers revealed a sharp decline in consumer sentiment to a record low of 49.8, largely due to inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict. Furthermore, inflation expectations have surged, with the one-year gauge jumping to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month, and long-term expectations rising to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This increase in inflation expectations could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates or ease liquidity in the near term, potentially capping the upside for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Analysts at Bitfinex noted that the shift in long-term expectations is particularly concerning for the Federal Reserve, as it raises the bar for any near-term easing pivot. The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders are also anticipating a potential rate increase by the Bank of Japan in June. In the crypto market, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot Bitcoin prices. Coordinated industry efforts to mitigate the impact of the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens perform relatively better than the broader market. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gained 0.5% over 24 hours, outperforming the CoinDesk 20's 1.5% decline. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's hourly price swings since late March indicate that the cryptocurrency has broken out of an ascending trendline, with prices trading below their 50- and 200-hour averages, pointing to uptrend exhaustion and potential for a deeper price pullback.