The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that before a bull market can begin, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, but he does not expect this to happen anytime soon.
He anticipates that the price will drop to around $57,000 by October, at which point it will begin to rise. Terpin's bearish outlook is at odds with the views of many analysts, who believe that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market. They point to the renewed inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of a new bull run. However, Terpin argues that the current market conditions are typical of the late stages of a bear market, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached, but disagrees with the timeline. Fernandes believes that the market may not have fully capitulated yet and that the fundamentals point to a later-cycle bottom.
Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst, disagrees with Terpin's bearish outlook, arguing that there is still room for growth this year and that an all-time high is possible. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that there may be another leg down before a sustainable base is formed.