A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as cryptocurrency. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to have a significant impact on the market, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to year-end.
This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting cryptocurrency markets. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of the capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, such as crypto, may be redirected.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The lesson learned from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
Two features of the SpaceX listing connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share on a deal of this size, and the fact that SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.