The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new record high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, believes that before a bull market can be declared, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, which he does not foresee happening anytime soon. Despite a double-digit increase in April, Terpin asserts that the cryptocurrency is still in a downward trend.
His views contrast with the majority of analysts, who think the bear market ended in February when the price hit a low of around $60,000. Most analysts point to renewed investment in US-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as indicators of an impending bull run.
However, Terpin thinks the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated.
Fernandes notes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October. Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The 'Crypto Godfather' also believes that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view that Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees with, thinking that there is still room for growth given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. AdLunam's Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that one more leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.