Crypto Under Quantum Threat: Experts Urge Preparation for Future Security Risks

A newly released report, commissioned by Coinbase, highlights the looming threat of quantum computing to the crypto industry. Although current blockchains remain secure, the advent of a fault-tolerant quantum computer could potentially break widely used encryption, emphasizing the need for preparation. The report, authored by renowned cryptographers and academics, stresses that while the timeline for such a development is uncertain, it is clearly on the horizon. Google researchers have estimated that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could break Bitcoin's cryptography, prompting major crypto ecosystems to begin developing responses. The Ethereum Foundation has proposed new digital signatures safe against quantum computers, while Solana and others are experimenting with quantum-resistant wallet designs. The report cautions against complacency, emphasizing that current quantum machines are far from powerful enough to crack cryptography, but the authors have high confidence that a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer will eventually be built. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology recommends migrating to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035, a timeline that may prove optimistic. The report suggests that waiting for the threat to become urgent is not a viable strategy, as transitions across blockchains, wallets, and exchanges could take years to execute safely. Some assets may be more vulnerable than others, with Bitcoin wallets that have already revealed their public keys being potential targets. Quantum-resistant cryptography already exists and is being standardized, but the transition will not be easy, with post-quantum digital signatures being tens to hundreds of times larger than current ones, potentially increasing blockchain data costs and reducing throughput. The report outlines multiple transition strategies, including hybrid systems that combine existing cryptography with post-quantum updates, and recommends flexible approaches that avoid sacrificing current security or performance while enabling a rapid upgrade later.