Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Obstacles Amid Pentagon's Inflation Warning

Bitcoin's recent surge towards $80,000 has been hindered by growing macroeconomic uncertainty. A classified Pentagon briefing to US lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil passage, may take at least six months and will only commence after the US-Iran conflict is resolved. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, potentially keeping inflation high and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This could negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity. Rising costs of essential items like fuel and food may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Markets are already reflecting these risks, with WTI crude prices increasing to around $95 and government bond yields rising across major economies. Despite these challenges, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract sustained demand, with funds experiencing their fastest inflows in a month. However, some analysts are urging caution, citing the lack of broad-based support in the spot market. The recent bitcoin price increase is largely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is still contracting. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying.