The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price of bitcoin must first break above $100,000, a level that has not been approached recently. Despite a significant gain in April, Terpin maintains that the market is still in a downturn.
He predicts that the bottom of the market will be reached at $57,000, likely in October, a view that contrasts with the consensus among many analysts who believe the low point was reached in February at around $60,000. Terpin's outlook is based on historical patterns in the bitcoin cycle, where the price often experiences lower highs before reaching a final low point. However, not all analysts agree with Terpin's timeline, with some suggesting that the market may not have fully surrendered yet. The fundamentals, according to Terpin, support a later-cycle bottom, which historically averages around $57,000.
Other analysts, such as Jason Fernandes, agree that the bottom has not been reached but disagree on the timing, citing the need for a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty. The broader macro conditions, including tight liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment, could continue to negatively impact risk assets like bitcoin. Terpin also believes that an all-time high for bitcoin is unlikely this year, a view not shared by all, with some analysts, like Mati Greenspan, suggesting that there is still room for significant growth given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest.