Bitcoin Bulls Face Hurdles in Quest to Surpass $80,000

After reaching highs above $79,000, Bitcoin has retreated to around $76,500, halting its rally from the late-March lows below $65,000. Those anticipating a rapid recovery should note that recent economic data does not support a significant bullish surge. The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers reported a record-low consumer sentiment index of 49.8, driven largely by inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have also risen sharply, with the one-year gauge increasing to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month, and long-term expectations reaching 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This sharp rise could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts or liquidity easing, potentially capping upside or slowing gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts warn that the long-term expectations move is particularly concerning for the Federal Reserve, as it raises the bar for any near-term easing pivot. The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday, while traders are also pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. Meanwhile, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot BTC, and coordinated industry efforts have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market. Bitcoin's hourly price swings have broken out of an ascending trendline, and prices are trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages, indicating potential for a deeper price pullback.