The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new record high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin predicts that the price needs to plummet to approximately $57,000 by October before it can begin its ascent. A market analyst, however, disagrees with this timeline.
Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that the current price of bitcoin, which has experienced a double-digit gain in April, still indicates a bear market. His outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Terpin's bearish view is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, which he believes typically involves lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
While some analysts agree that the bottom has not yet been reached, they disagree with Terpin's timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will occur in October.
Other analysts argue that broader macro conditions could continue to affect risk assets, including bitcoin, and that a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a true washout event in crypto markets is needed to reduce downside volatility. Additionally, Terpin believes that bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high this year, a view that is disputed by some analysts who think that institutional adoption and growing interest could drive the price to a new record high.