The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, expected in June, is set to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially drawing significant interest and liquidity away from crypto markets. This, combined with the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, could lead to a substantial capital pull, exceeding the total value of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. As a result, crypto assets, which are closely correlated with tech and AI equities, may experience a decline in value.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale, suggesting that institutional milestones can often signal market tops rather than new beginnings. With SpaceX's IPO featuring a significant retail allocation and the company holding a material bitcoin position, the event is likely to have a direct impact on crypto flows.
The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and maintain its value amidst the IPO frenzy.