A historic IPO is on the horizon, and its impact on the crypto market is a subject of growing interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019, making it the largest stock-market debut in history.
With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raised could exceed $240 billion, surpassing every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may divert attention and funds away from the crypto market, potentially triggering a downturn. The correlation between crypto and tech equities, particularly those in the AI sector, has tightened in recent cycles, suggesting that a rotation out of equities could negatively impact crypto prices. Furthermore, the historical precedent set by Coinbase's IPO in April 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raises concerns that institutional milestones may signal the beginning of the end rather than a new beginning.
The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its significant retail allocation and disclosed bitcoin holdings, will be a crucial test for the crypto market, providing insight into whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows or will be dragged down by the impending liquidity shift.