Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a significant surge earlier in the week to its highest level since February. This upward trend puts the cryptocurrency on track for a 13.6% increase in April, marking its best monthly performance in a year, based on data from CoinGlass. The rebound follows a prolonged period of decline, with crypto markets experiencing their longest losing streak since 2018, from October to February.
The improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop, including a strong recovery in U.S. equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to this turnaround. Additionally, the growth of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, to nearly $150 billion, with an increase of about $5 billion over the past two weeks, has acted as a crypto-specific catalyst. This expansion of stablecoin supply is seen as an indicator of increased liquidity in crypto markets, signaling potential capital inflows and healthy asset prices.
However, geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war persist, keeping oil prices elevated. According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, markets seem to be overlooking these geopolitical concerns, attributing this to fatigue and complacency. Strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets are offsetting worries about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.
The upcoming Fed meeting in April will be a crucial test for whether the current rally can be sustained. If institutional demand continues to drive the move, breaking through the $79,000 level could mark a durable shift, whereas a fade in momentum could result in a return to the $75,000-$77,000 range.