Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high.
Bitcoin analyst James Check views such a move as statistically extraordinary, although not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis, indicating that a price of $40,000 would be a '0.4 event,' falling in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes.
This would be equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, with the current price sitting around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check notes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.