The price of bitcoin has yet to reach its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a seasoned bitcoin investor and author of the book Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin predicts that the price of bitcoin needs to plummet to approximately $57,000 by October before it can begin its ascent.
This forecast is based on his analysis of the cryptocurrency market. A market analyst has expressed disagreement with this assessment.
Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000 and establish a support level before a bull market can be declared. Despite the double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn. His pessimistic outlook for this cycle contradicts the consensus among analysts, who believe that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run.
Most analysts who hold a bullish view point to the renewed inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as factors contributing to their outlook. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours on Monday, with the high price of oil being a contributing factor. He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to impact risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight.
The author and entrepreneur also predicts that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst. Greenspan believes that Terpin's take seems overly bearish and that an all-time high is still possible given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. AdLunam's Fernandes also states that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that one more leg down may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.