A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. The listing is expected to have a significant effect on the market, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not the only company planning to go public, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to list in the coming months, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially draining liquidity from the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may be diverted from crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The lesson learned from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line.
Two features of the SpaceX listing are particularly relevant to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the fact that SpaceX holds a material bitcoin position, worth roughly $600 million. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow period could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.