The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, and notes that the bottom of the market will be reached at $57,000 by October. Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the market is still in a downturn. As the 'Crypto Godfather,' Terpin has been involved in the industry since 2013 and has founded several ventures, including Transform Group, CoinAgenda, and BitAngels.
His bearish outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most analysts cite renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of a bull run. However, Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also predicts that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, who believes that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest could lead to a new all-time high.
Fernandes agrees that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.