A historic stock market debut is approaching, and the crypto market is bracing for potential impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
The likelihood of a June listing is estimated at 65% by Polymarket traders, with a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, potentially raising over $60 billion. The combined capital raise of these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to year-end, surpassing every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a bearish trend in the market. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have been trading with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and may be affected by the shift in liquidity.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern. The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto prices hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begin to decline as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally during this period could indicate that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.