Bitcoin is currently trading at $75,921.35, down 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering near $77,000 as markets prepare for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The move appears to be driven by caution rather than a shift in market sentiment. According to Singapore-based market maker Enflux, traders are hesitant to push bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index, which will shape expectations for potential rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year. The primary constraint currently is oil, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it challenging for the Fed to adopt a dovish stance.
Enflux notes that the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy, effectively pricing out rate cuts for June and creating an ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction. A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary. Otherwise, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into the data releases, with sharper moves likely tied to the macro prints rather than the Fed statement itself.
Looking beyond this week, the pace of AI demand may also shape bitcoin's next moves, as reported by The Wall Street Journal that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt and sold portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could potentially slow selling, as miners have both the incentive and financing to keep building when demand for compute is strong, leading to continued BTC sales to fund capex and service debt.
However, if OpenAI's miss signals slower AI growth, the dynamic becomes more complex, potentially easing miner-driven selling over time and removing a source of supply. The problem lies in timing, as sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later.
In this sense, the AI story reinforces Enflux's broader point that the market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price, keeping bitcoin trading in the same narrow band as it awaits a clearer signal.