After reaching above $79,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin has pulled back to $76,500, stalling its rally from late March lows below $65,000. Recent economic data does not support a significant bullish move.
The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers reported a record-low consumer sentiment index of 49.8, driven by inflationary pressures related to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have also increased, with the one-year gauge rising to 4.8% in April, while long-term expectations have reached 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This surge in inflation expectations could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts, potentially capping gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts note that the Fed closely monitors inflation expectations, and the recent increase could raise the bar for any near-term easing pivot.
The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday, while traders are also anticipating a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. In the crypto market, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot BTC prices, and coordinated industry efforts have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market. Bitcoin's hourly price chart shows a dive out of an ascending trendline, with prices trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages, indicating uptrend exhaustion and potential for a deeper price pullback.