A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would not only surpass Saudi Aramco's record $29 billion IPO in 2019 but also make it the largest stock market debut in history. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone in its pursuit of going public, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to list in the near future, with the latter potentially raising over $60 billion in October. The combined total of these IPOs could reach $240 billion, exceeding the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it may draw liquidity away from bitcoin and other digital assets.
According to Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, the SpaceX IPO could mark the beginning of a bearish trend in equities, which could have a ripple effect on the crypto market. The historical parallel between the Coinbase IPO in 2021 and the current situation is a cause for concern, as it may indicate that institutional milestones often mark the peak of a cycle rather than the beginning.
The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, worth approximately $600 million. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining how the crypto market responds to the SpaceX IPO, with the roadshow window in May and June serving as a testable signal for whether crypto can hold its ground or will begin to drift lower.