Bitcoin is currently down 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering near $77,000, as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic catalysts. The movement appears to be driven by caution rather than a change in sentiment.
According to Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, traders are hesitant to push bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These reports will shape expectations for when the Fed can begin cutting rates in the second half of the year. The primary constraint currently is oil, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making a dovish signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell less likely. Enflux notes that the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will ease eventually, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy.
This combination has priced out rate cuts for June and created an ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700. A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary. Otherwise, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade cautiously into Thursday's data releases, with sharper moves more likely tied to macro prints than the Fed statement itself.
Beyond this week, a less visible force may shape bitcoin's next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand.
Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could slow selling, but the timing of this relief is uncertain, and sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market first.