A historic stock market debut is approaching, and it may draw interest away from crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with potential valuations near $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raise of over $240 billion could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially compressing liquidity in other areas, including crypto. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it may also impact crypto.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also draw money away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX holds a material bitcoin position, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under new accounting rules.
The impact of this IPO on crypto will be visible in the coming weeks, as the roadshow window in May and June approaches.