The bitcoin price surge that occurred on Sunday night has lost momentum near $79,400, exhibiting signs of exhaustion, with multiple indicators suggesting potential short-term vulnerability as the price returns to around $77,000. The Coinbase premium index, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase and offshore exchanges like Binance, has turned negative for the first time since April 8, according to data from Coinglass, indicating a shift in demand from US investors. Following a 14-day period of positive readings, the longest stretch since October, the index has dropped to -0.04%, signaling a decrease in aggressive buying from this group.
At the same time, the large Bitfinex whale, closely watched for its impact on pricing, remains near its cycle peak long exposure, with holdings at 79,342 BTC, just shy of the 80,100 BTC high. Typically, this entity reduces its position once a local bottom is confirmed or when there is clear upside momentum. The fact that exposure remains near the cycle peak despite bitcoin's push toward $79,000 suggests a lack of short-term upside, increasing the risk of a price decline. Furthermore, bitcoin's failure to reclaim the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) at $79,200 is a bearish sign, as this metric represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of coins held for fewer than 155 days.
The longer the price stays below the STHRP, the more likely recent buyers are to continue selling, putting additional pressure on the price. With the flagship Bitcoin conference underway, prior gains are already fading, and if past trends are any indication, further downside may follow.