A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially compressing liquidity in other markets, including crypto.
Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a downturn. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in April 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown within six weeks.
The lesson learned is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital chasing these milestones is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or if it will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.