Experts Warn of Looming Quantum Computing Threat to Crypto, Stress Need for Preparation

A newly released report, commissioned by Coinbase, serves as a warning to the cryptocurrency industry: while quantum computing does not currently pose an immediate threat to crypto, the potential risks are real and necessitate urgent attention. The report, compiled by a panel of renowned cryptographers and academics, including Dan Boneh, Justin Drake, and Sreeram Kannan, underscores that the advent of a fault-tolerant quantum computer could potentially break the encryption widely used in today's blockchains. Although current quantum machines lack the necessary power to compromise the cryptography underpinning major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, the authors caution against complacency, citing the uncertainty surrounding the timeline for the development of such a computer. Estimates suggest that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could be built within a few years to a decade or more, with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology recommending a transition to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035. The report highlights the challenges associated with this transition, including the potential for increased blockchain data costs and reduced throughput due to the larger size of post-quantum digital signatures. It also outlines multiple transition strategies, emphasizing the need for flexible approaches that balance current security and performance with the ability to rapidly upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography when needed.