Bitcoin's attempt to break out above $80,000 has been hindered by renewed macro uncertainty. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping oil and gasoline prices high until the midterm elections. This could lead to sticky inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity.
Rising costs for essentials may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market risks are increasing, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 and government bond yields rising across major economies. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts urge caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market. The recent price increase is driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is contracting.
The market capitalization of USDT has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.