A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to take place in June, posing a significant threat to the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion by the end of the year. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the liquidity of crypto assets, as they are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Traders who read the IPO as a signal that crypto was going mainstream spent the next six months watching mainstream capital rotate out. The lesson is that institutional milestones frequently mark tops rather than starting lines, because the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
With SpaceX's IPO expected to draw significant attention, it remains to be seen whether crypto will hold up or drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.