A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, which could divert investor interest away from crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $29 billion, making it the largest stock market debut in history. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end would exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. Crypto assets, including bitcoin, are likely to be affected as they share the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and major stock indexes like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has tightened over the past two cycles, suggesting that speculative capital leaving equities for IPO allocations could impact crypto prices. Historically, institutional milestones have marked the peak of crypto cycles rather than the starting point, as seen with Coinbase's IPO in April 2021. SpaceX's IPO, with a 30% retail allocation and a material bitcoin position, could have a direct impact on crypto flows.
The retail allocation of roughly $22 billion could divert funds away from crypto, while SpaceX's bitcoin holdings, worth around $600 million, make it the first public company with a significant disclosed bitcoin position. The performance of crypto during the roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal, with a potential rally suggesting that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.