A historic stock market debut is imminent, and the crypto market is bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This listing, expected in June, would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record and become the largest stock market debut in history. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end would exceed the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially compressing liquidity in other markets, including crypto.
As crypto assets are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a significant outflow of capital from these markets could negatively impact bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale.
With SpaceX's IPO on the horizon, the crypto market will be closely watching to see if it can withstand the potential disruption or if it will succumb to the same fate as in 2021.