In approximately six weeks, one of the largest initial public offerings in history is anticipated, and the crypto market is likely to be affected as it shares the same liquidity pool. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this offering would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019, becoming the largest stock-market debut in history. The likelihood of a June listing is estimated at 65% by Polymarket traders, with a 53% chance that the first-day closing market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not the only company planning to go public, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, potentially raising over $60 billion and $240 billion combined by the end of the year. This massive influx of capital could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it sits within the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Historical data suggests that when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital would have otherwise been invested in higher-beta assets, including crypto. The impending IPOs could trigger a rotation out of crypto, similar to what occurred after Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle.
However, the 30% retail allocation for SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The performance of crypto during the roadshow window in May and June will be a crucial indicator of whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows or if it will be affected by the impending IPOs.