The Bitcoin price rally that occurred on Sunday night has lost momentum near $79,400 and is now exhibiting signs of exhaustion, with multiple indicators suggesting potential short-term weakness as the price returns to around $77,000. The Coinbase premium index has turned negative for the first time since April 8, according to data from Coinglass, with a reading of -0.04%.
This shift follows a 14-day period of positive readings, the longest since October, which signaled consistent demand from US investors and a subsequent rise in the Bitcoin price from $66,000 to $79,000. The index measures the price difference between Coinbase, a platform used by US institutions, and offshore exchanges such as Binance.
A move into negative territory implies that US investors are no longer aggressively buying, making the market more dependent on offshore flows. Historically, a negative Coinbase premium has coincided with price pullbacks or consolidation. Meanwhile, the large Bitfinex whale, which is closely watched for its directional impact on pricing, remains near its cycle peak in terms of long exposure, with current holdings at 79,342 BTC, just below the high of 80,100 BTC. This entity typically reduces its position once a local bottom is confirmed or when there is clear upside momentum.
The fact that exposure remains near the cycle peak despite Bitcoin's push towards $79,000 suggests a lack of short-term upside potential, increasing the risk of a price decline. Furthermore, Bitcoin failed to retake the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) at $79,200. This metric represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of coins held for less than 155 days, a group that tends to be more reactive to price fluctuations. The longer the price stays below the STHRP, the more likely recent buyers are to continue selling, putting additional pressure on the price.
Lastly, the flagship Bitcoin conference has begun, and if past trends are any indication, the prior gains may fade further, potentially leading to more downside.