A historic stock market debut is approaching, and the crypto market is bracing for potential impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 record and become the largest stock market debut in history. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning listings, which could collectively pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital influx may trigger a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as investors allocate funds to these new listings. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded in tandem with tech and AI equities, and a significant portion of the capital that would otherwise support these assets may be redirected to the IPOs.
The historical precedent of Coinbase's 2021 listing, which coincided with a peak in the bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and significant bitcoin holdings, may have a direct impact on crypto flows. As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, the crypto market will be closely watching for signs of whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows or if it will be affected by the massive capital pull of the SpaceX IPO.