Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given its current price is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decrease from its all-time high. Bitcoin analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically remarkable, albeit not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which averages key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average and realized price.
At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4th percentile event, indicating an extremely rare occurrence. Check notes that this would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, emphasizing that while no outcome has zero probability, a $40,000 price would be nearly unprecedented.