As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, its momentum was hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. The Pentagon recently briefed U.S. lawmakers, warning that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and that gasoline and oil prices may remain high until the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved.
This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is particularly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions, rather than real economic activity. Rising costs for essentials could reduce investors' willingness to invest in speculative assets.
These risks are reflected in the market, with WTI crude increasing to around $95 and government bond yields rising across major economies. Despite this, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with funds experiencing their fastest inflows in a month. However, some analysts urge caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market.
The recent price increase is driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is contracting. This could lead to a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract. The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is increasing.
The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily rising and has topped the 100-day average, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.