A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering just six weeks away, and the crypto market is bracing for potential disruption. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The massive capital raise could pull liquidity away from the crypto market, as investors allocate funds to participate in the IPO.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potential raises exceeding $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital pull of over $240 billion could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. The crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, may experience a decline in value as investors rotate out of riskier assets to participate in the IPOs. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in April 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines for crypto assets.
The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert funds away from crypto investments. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a test for crypto's resilience, as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally extending through the roadshow period could indicate that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.