A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
The likelihood of a June listing is estimated at 65% by Polymarket traders, with a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is targeting a Q4 listing at a valuation near $1 trillion, and Anthropic is reportedly planning an October debut that could raise over $60 billion.
The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June through year-end, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a bearish trend in the market.
Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, warns that after the SpaceX IPO, the market may become very bearish on equities, drawing a parallel with the Solana $300 moment. The MSCI firm has modeled a scenario where megacap IPOs in 2026 could trigger index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in assets outside the new listings. As crypto is part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, it may be affected by the same market trends.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Traders who viewed Coinbase's IPO as a signal that crypto was going mainstream spent the next six months watching mainstream capital rotate out. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's listing has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share on a deal this size, and the fact that SpaceX itself holds 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.
However, the impact of SpaceX's IPO on the crypto market remains to be seen, and whether crypto treats the lesson as learned or learns it again will be visible in the market starting roughly six weeks from now.