Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, reaching $77,435.03, some industry experts believe it has yet to escape the bear market that began in October, given its current price is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high. According to Bitcoin analyst James Check, such a move, although not impossible, would be statistically remarkable.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average and volume-weighted average price measures. When modeled at $40,000, Bitcoin falls into the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, indicating an extremely rare event. For perspective, Check notes this would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, in contrast to its current price around the 31.5th percentile, which, although historically weak, remains within normal correction ranges. Check emphasizes that while no market event has zero probability, reaching $40,000 would indeed be a near-unprecedented outcome.