Bitcoin's recent surge towards $80,000 has been hindered by macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly a warning from the Pentagon that inflation may persist due to elevated energy costs. The Pentagon's briefing to U.S. lawmakers stated that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping oil prices high until the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved.
This could lead to sticky inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin. The cryptocurrency's price is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions, rather than real economic activity.
Rising costs for essentials may also reduce investors' willingness to invest in speculative assets. Markets are already reflecting these risks, with WTI crude prices increasing to around $95 and government bond yields rising across major economies. While U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs are experiencing sustained demand, some analysts are urging caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market.
The recent price increase is largely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is still contracting. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, and speculation in non-serious tokens is on the rise. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily increasing, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.