A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO in June, which could have a significant impact on the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. This listing, combined with the expected IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The massive capital raise could lead to a reduction in liquidity, affecting bitcoin and crypto, which are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
The correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has been tightening over the past two cycles, and the rotation of speculative capital from equities to IPO allocations could negatively impact crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert funds away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin holding under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The performance of crypto during the roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal, indicating whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows.