The recent boost in Bitcoin's price, driven by the US-Iran ceasefire, is beginning to lose momentum as markets wait for concrete results. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has fallen back, repeating the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall comes after a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the news of the ceasefire.
Despite ongoing optimism and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. According to QCP Capital, one of the world's largest digital asset market makers, 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress such as restored energy flows, compression in crude premia, and clearer disinflation.' Traders should monitor oil prices closely, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first.
The decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests that traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) and DOGE could experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure.
Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, notes that Solana has outperformed the market over the last day but has failed to consolidate above the $105 level. The MOVE index, which measures US Treasury note volatility, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March.
This is bullish for risk assets, as stability in the US bond market helps ease credit and financial conditions. The chart of Bitcoin's hourly price action since March 31 highlights a steady upward trajectory, but the failure to produce a decisive breakout above $76,000 indicates a developing double-top pattern, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.