A historic stock market debut is nearing, with SpaceX's initial public offering anticipated to take place in June, which could influence the same liquidity pool that supports crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This could be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are planning their own listings, which could raise over $60 billion and $1 trillion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these companies is expected to exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull may have a significant impact on the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as they share the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Historically, bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also affect the crypto market.
The upcoming IPOs may trigger a rotation of capital out of crypto, potentially leading to a decline in prices. However, if crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June, it could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.