Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a significant surge earlier in the week to its highest level since February. This upward trend puts the cryptocurrency on track for a 13.6% increase in April, its best monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass. The rebound occurs after a prolonged period of decline, with crypto markets experiencing their longest losing streak since 2018, marked by consecutive monthly declines from October to February.
The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong recovery in U.S. equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to this turnaround. Additionally, the supply of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, has grown to nearly $150 billion, with an increase of approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks. This growth in stablecoins, which act as a source of liquidity in crypto markets, is often seen as an indicator of capital flowing into the crypto market, signaling a positive outlook for asset prices.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, which have kept oil prices elevated, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns. According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, strong corporate earnings and the resilience of equity markets are offsetting worries about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks. De Maere noted that the equities and crypto markets seem to have become indifferent to detailed headlines about the conflict, indicating a level of fatigue and potential complacency. Bitcoin is currently hovering near the top of its trading range, with the $79,000 level proving to be a significant cap as traders take profits.
The ability of bitcoin to break through this level will depend on the driving forces behind the move and the participants involved. A breakout supported by sustained institutional demand could mark a more durable shift, whereas moves driven primarily by short covering tend to fade once momentum cools.
The upcoming April Fed meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally, with the continuation of ETF inflows potentially turning $79,000 from resistance into support, paving the way for a higher trading range. Conversely, if flows fade, bitcoin may revert to the $75,000–$77,000 range.